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1998). 11 shows the penetration of the Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. 10 The value of improving solar electric power technologies relative to a reference case cost of 8 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2020. automobile into the French transportation system. It took half a century for the now-dominant technology to capture half of the market. Market penetration on a global scale takes longer. 1 indicates that depending on the limit placed on the atmospheric concentration of CO2, the date at which global emissions peak ranges from 2005 to 2062.
Underlying that scenario is a world population of 11 billion. Recently, most population numbers have been revised downwards. The best estimates are below 10 billion, reflecting the rapid decline in fertility rates around the world, in both developed and developing countries. So it reflects some success in a variety of different dimensions. The numbers have been declining. Tom Schelling at the University of Maryland suggested that the biggest problem facing us is keeping the rate of population growth from overwhelming the resource base.
United Nations. 1992. Framework Convention on Climate Change. New York. , R. Richels, and J. Edmonds. 1996. Economic and environmental choices in the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, Nature 379(6562):240-243. H. 1995. Variants of a Low CO2-Emitting Energy Supply System (LESS) for the World. PNL-10851. Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland, Wash. 1. I thought you said that to stabilize CO2 in the atmosphere, emissions had to go to zero, which I would interpret to mean that all carbon oxidation has to stop, and I don’t think that’s what you really meant.